South Africans have shown a ‘boer maak ’n plan’ attitude in response to years of rolling blackouts, taking matters into their own hands by installing an estimated 6,178MW of rooftop solar power – equivalent to the capacity of two power stations.
Gauteng leads the country with an estimated 1,799MW of rooftop solar, accounting for nearly 30% of the national total. KwaZulu-Natal follows with 811MW, while the Western Cape (710MW) and Mpumalanga (705MW) round out the top four, according to data from the National Transmission Company.
Eskom spokesperson Daphne Mokwena has said that the widespread adoption of rooftop solar has helped alleviate pressure on the national grid.
In 2023, South Africa experienced its worst year of loadshedding, with blackouts on 335 out of 365 days. The severity of the crisis led the country to import 4,343MW of solar panels from China, according to data from Ember and China’s General Administration of Customs.
Eskom’s underperforming power stations have long hindered South Africa’s economic growth, with almost 7,000 hours of blackouts being recorded in 2023, making it the country’s worst year for loadshedding.
The country saw a marked improvement in 2024 with 1,640 hours of loadshedding. But after 10 months of uninterrupted power supply, the national power utility declared a stage 3 alert at the end of January 2025.
Less than a month later, another stage 3 alert was escalated to stage 6 after multiple unit trips at the Majuba, Medupi and Camden coal plants.
Although electricity and energy minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa described the rolling blackouts as the ‘final run’ of loadshedding, energy expert Chris Yelland has cautioned that the situation is far from resolved.
He is reported as saying that the recent outages highlight Eskom’s continuing vulnerabilities, particularly a weakness in its protection and control systems, and the lack of dual redundancy.
Eskom, South Africa’s national power utility, appears to have its stations performing relatively well. Its energy availability factor (EAF) – the average percentage of installed capacity that is operational and ready to generate electricity – has improved compared with this time last year.
It is also higher than in 2023, which was South Africa’s worst year of loadshedding. That year, the country experienced nearly 7,000 cumulative hours of blackouts, with an EAF of just 55% for the calendar year.
The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) sets the minimum EAF at 65%. However, Eskom’s integrated results show that the last time the utility came close to this target was in the 2021 financial year, when the EAF stood at 64.2%.
Eskom spokesperson Daphne Mokwena has emphasised the importance of improving generation capacity: ‘Until we reach this target [of 65% EAF], every megawatt of electricity produced is precious to our national grid.’
South Africa has a pressing need to increase energy capacity. However, some of the country’s best solar and wind resource areas – the Eastern Cape, Western Cape and Northern Cape – have run out of grid capacity.
To address this, Eskom must expand capacity and build more transmission lines, which transport electricity from where it is generated to where it is needed.
In its 2024 annual report, the power utility stated that it wants to accelerate its transmission line construction rate to 1,400km a year. However, reaching this target will require a significant increase in efforts. In 2024, for instance, only 74km of lines were built.
Eskom’s Transmission Development Plan aims to install more than 14,000km of transmission lines over the next decade. However, the utility acknowledges that this will have to be done at an ‘unprecedented pace.’
The highest installation since 2008 was in 2014, when 811km of lines were added.
The number of private electricity generation projects in Limpopo is growing rapidly, making the province second only to the Northern Cape in capacity registered with Nersa, South Africa’s energy regulator. Two major solar projects added in January brought Limpopo’s total to 1,887MW, overtaking the Free State.
Three large solar projects were registered in Limpopo in 2024, including a 475MW facility. It is one of the two largest private solar projects on Nersa’s list, with the other located in the Free State.
The Western Cape registered three large wind projects last year, including the 380MW FE Overberg wind farm. No new wind registrations have been added since August.
Large private projects (100MW or more) began registering with Nersa in 2022 after licensing regulations were relaxed. These projects are independent of the government’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme. Registration doesn’t mean they are operational.
Two-thirds of the 11,324MW registered by Nersa since 2018 is solar.
The number of private electricity generation projects in Limpopo is growing rapidly, making the province second only to the Northern Cape in capacity registered with Nersa, South Africa’s energy regulator. Two major solar projects added in January brought Limpopo’s total to 1,887MW, overtaking the Free State.
Three large solar projects were registered in Limpopo in 2024, including a 475MW facility. It is one of the two largest private solar projects on Nersa’s list, with the other located in the Free State.
The Western Cape registered three large wind projects last year, including the 380MW FE Overberg wind farm. No new wind registrations have been added since August.
Large private projects (100MW or more) began registering with Nersa in 2022 after licensing regulations were relaxed. These projects are independent of the government’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme. Registration doesn’t mean they are operational.
Two-thirds of the 11,324MW registered by Nersa since 2018 is solar.
- Eskom has managed to keep the power on for 150 days
- This is the longest period without loadshedding since 2019
- Five years ago, Eskom had a 206-day streak of uninterrupted power
August 23 is a special day for Eskom: for 150 days there has been no loadshedding. Not since 2019 has South Africa experienced uninterrupted power from the national electricity utility for this long.
Loadshedding is Eskom’s way of dealing with its inability to generate enough electricity to meet the country’s needs.
The planned blackout schedule has been in place for so long that a generation of young adults has no memory of when you could cook meals without planning whether you’d be able to use your oven.
Last year was the low point for Eskom, there were 335 days of loadshedding, many of them at Stage 6 – which means that supply was 6,000MW short of demand.
A recovery plan has been put in place, says Eskom board chair Mteto Nyati.
Unfortunately for people in Joburg, municipal power company City Power has stepped into the breach with its two-and-a-half hours of ‘load rotation’ a day.
- 71% of Eskom’s generating capacity is in working order
- It’s an improvement from 49% at the start of 2024
- Fewer breakdowns, better maintenance are keeping the lights on
Eskom is finally making headway in keeping the country’s lights on. A key improvement has been an uptick in the energy availability factor (EAF), the average percentage of Eskom’s installed capacity that is in working order and ready to run if needed.
In the last week of July, Eskom power stations had an EAF of 71% with six power stations – Kusile, Lethabo, Majuba, Matla, Medupi and Tutuka – contributing to the milestone. It’s a significant improvement from the start of the year when its power stations had an EAF of 49%.
Fewer unplanned outages from breakdowns and better maintenance have resulted in fewer hours of rolling blackouts. Between January and August 2024, South Africa had 83 days of loadshedding. Last year, 335 days were affected by loadshedding.
South Africa’s power utility has promised to achieve an average 70% EAF by March 2025.
Note: EAF excludes energy produced by renewables, independent power producers and international imports.
- SA’s power utility lost 32% of its capacity to breakdowns in 2023
- It’s the most energy lost to breakdowns in 14 years
- Unprotected strikes and operational issues contributed to capacity loss
Eskom’s ability to generate electricity in 2023 was significantly affected by breakdowns at its power plants. The power utility says these included electrical trips at generating units, outage ‘slips’ as well as boiler tube failures, which prevent the creation of steam to drive power-generating turbines.
Eskom CEO Calib Cassim said, however, that these were not the only causes of the 32% unplanned capacity loss. An unprotected employee strike in mid-2022 had a devastating effect on the system. The protest action, which fell within the 2022/23 financial year, was sparked by a failure in wage negotiations after the National Union of Mineworkers’ demanded a 15% increase.
Cassim has suggested that either deliberate sabotage or neglect of power stations during the stayaway exacerbated the coal-handling operations. Eskom had to pay R2.5-billion in overtime because of breakdowns at its power plants. This is an increase from the R2.1-billion paid in 2022.
2022 loadshedding more than 3 times previous years
Loadshedding daze
Loadshedding daze
Feeling powerless